Tornado
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$21.54
30.77 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $19.58 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.83%
764 openings, odds method
Variance
3.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 773 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New)weapon · classified$21.5430.77 coins$25.2336.05 coins1.17x
XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedLike Scoob, I'm Buff$21.5430.77 coins$5.387.69 coins0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $21.54 | 90.90% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $22.29 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $22.49 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.3%extraordinary 0.5%classified 59.2%restricted 33.0%best hit $588 (26.14x)