Toss Up

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$230.17

329 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $209.25 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

113.08%

28 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

27.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

50.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

22 openings · below min

30 days

28 openings · below min

since tracking started

28 openings · below min

80.5%118.3%156.0%

Small sample. 28 openings and 9.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	22	119.65%±35.9	—	odds
30d	28	113.08%±31.8	—	odds
All	28	113.08%±31.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 200	$1,424 2,034 coins	3.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$1,212 1,732 coins	2.9%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 40	$665 950 coins	7.9%	2	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20	$507 724 coins	12.1%	1	1.4	0.71×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 29	$497 710 coins	8.3%	2	1.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	15.5%	$280 400 coins	20.7%	5	4.3	1.15×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	22.5%	$279 399 coins	30.0%	8	6.3	1.27×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 20	$225 321 coins	5.4%	2	1.4	1.43×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$94.50 135 coins	2.3%	1	1.4	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$51.29 73.27 coins	2.5%	3	2.8	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	10.0%	$41.38 59.11 coins	2.0%	2	2.8	0.71×
AWP \| Electric Hive (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	15.0%	$27.74 39.63 coins	2.0%	2	4.2	0.48×
USP-S \| Orange Anolis (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$21.60 30.86 coins	0.5%	0	1.4	0.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.