Toxin

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$92.97

133 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $84.51 from 19 items

Observed RTP, 30d

183.21%

43 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

12 openings · below min

30 days

43 openings · below min

since tracking started

43 openings · below min

-0.5%116.3%233.0%

Small sample. 43 openings and 8.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	12	66.87%±92.7	—	odds
30d	43	183.21%±49.0	—	odds
All	43	183.21%±49.0	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 43 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 1,000	$2,079 2,970 coins	2.5%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 500	$1,935 2,765 coins	4.6%	1	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 333	$1,014 1,448 coins	3.6%	1	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100	$533 762 coins	6.3%	3	0.4	—
Sticker \| JW (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 50	$484 692 coins	11.5%	1	0.9	—
★ Moto Gloves \| POW! (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$475 678 coins	4.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 67	$274 392 coins	4.9%	0	0.6	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Black Tie (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$255 364 coins	3.8%	1	0.5	—
Sticker \| v4lde (Gold) \| Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary	1 in 29	$124 177 coins	5.1%	1	1.5	0.66×
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$108 154 coins	11.5%	6	3.9	1.55×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 40	$103 147 coins	3.0%	1	1.1	0.93×
★ Falchion Knife \| Night (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 25	$97.30 139 coins	4.6%	1	1.7	0.58×
★ Moto Gloves \| Smoke Out (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$81.20 116 coins	4.8%	2	2.1	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	11.9%	$67.53 96.47 coins	9.5%	2	5.1	0.39×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 14	$58.86 84.09 coins	4.9%	4	3.0	1.33×
★ Driver Gloves \| Queen Jaguar (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$42.88 61.26 coins	4.1%	0	3.4	0.00×
Sticker \| Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic	16.0%	$27.60 39.43 coins	5.2%	8	6.9	1.16×
Dual Berettas \| Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	14.0%	$26.52 37.88 coins	4.4%	9	6.0	1.50×
Patch \| Death From Belowpatch · remarkable	12.0%	$11.35 16.21 coins	1.6%	2	5.2	0.39×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2$93.30133 coins$1,9632,805 coins21.04x7d

★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3$93.30133 coins$1,0561,508 coins11.31x7d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$93.30133 coins$535764 coins5.73x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$93.30133 coins$108154 coins1.16x3d

Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic$93.30133 coins$26.4137.73 coins0.28x3d

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$93.30133 coins$26.5937.98 coins0.28x3d

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specMiltsukkaaaw :3$93.30133 coins$26.5937.98 coins0.28x3d

★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert$93.30133 coins$59.8485.48 coins0.64x5d

Sticker | v4lde (Gold) | Boston 2018sticker · extraordinary$93.30133 coins$125179 coins1.34x5d

Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic$93.30133 coins$26.4137.73 coins0.28x5d

Souvenir Tec-9 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · restrictedEdu-Bruh$93.30133 coins$108154 coins1.16x5d

Dual Berettas | Emerald (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$93.30133 coins$26.5937.98 coins0.28x5d

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary$93.30133 coins$81.20116 coins0.87x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$92.97	90.91%	19
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$92.64	90.91%	19
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$93.30	90.91%	19

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 28.5%extraordinary 20.5%restricted 9.0%exotic 16.0%mil spec 14.0%remarkable 12.0%best hit $1,963 (21.04x)