Toy Soldier
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.41
10.59 coins
Advertised RTP
90.94%
EV $6.74 from 20 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.26%
3,263 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 13
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
64.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,269 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedMisterCheat$7.4110.59 coins$8.6812.4 coins1.17x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $7.41 | 90.94% | 20 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $7.42 | 90.87% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $7.54 | 90.93% | 20 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $7.63 | 90.92% | 20 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $7.61 | 90.94% | 20 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $7.55 | 90.91% | 20 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $7.55 | 90.88% | 20 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.49 | 90.92% | 20 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 1.6%extraordinary 0.0%restricted 16.8%classified 5.2%industrial 30.9%Mythical 1.5%mil spec 24.0%Uncommon 20.0%best hit —