Trance
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$74.03
106 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $67.30 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
119.88%
91 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
29.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
50.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 91 openings and 22.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBlair$74.03106 coins$506723 coins6.84x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covertKickerrrrrrrr$74.03106 coins$98.70141 coins1.33x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $74.03 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $74.12 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $74.12 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $77.61 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $77.52 | 90.91% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $77.54 | 90.91% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%legendary 0.5%covert 36.8%classified 37.6%restricted 25.0%best hit $506 (6.84x)