Tranquillity
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.23
44.61 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $28.39 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.21%
357 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
17.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 363 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Sunset Storm 弐 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $404 577 coins | 7.1% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.10× |
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $109 156 coins | 19.2% | 16 | 18.2 | 0.88× |
| P2000 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $91.00 130 coins | 3.2% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.55× |
| MP7 | Teal Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $91.00 130 coins | 9.6% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 13 | $49.99 71.42 coins | 14.1% | 28 | 29.0 | 0.96× |
| StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 15.0% | $48.33 69.05 coins | 25.5% | 56 | 54.4 | 1.03× |
| MP7 | Ocean Foam (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 27.5% | $11.91 17.02 coins | 11.5% | 104 | 99.8 | 1.04× |
| Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial | 18.0% | $7.68 10.97 coins | 4.9% | 55 | 65.3 | 0.84× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 22.0% | $6.19 8.84 coins | 4.8% | 88 | 79.9 | 1.10× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 20:32 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$31.2344.61 coins$7.6810.97 coins0.25x
Souvenir USP-S | Forest Leaves (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$31.2344.61 coins$7.6810.97 coins0.25x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $31.23 | 90.91% | 9 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $31.72 | 90.92% | 9 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $32.25 | 90.91% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 28.0%classified 28.0%mil spec 3.0%industrial 26.0%covert 15.0%best hit —