Translucent

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$21.29

30.41 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $19.35 from 16 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.06%

821 openings, odds method

Variance

3.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.98%±28.09144 openings

7 days

88.58%±11.82759 openings

30 days

87.06%±11.34821 openings

since tracking started

87.06%±11.34821 openings

68.0%96.8%125.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	144	96.98%±28.1	+0.4σ	odds
7d	759	88.58%±11.8	−0.4σ	odds
30d	821	87.06%±11.3	−0.7σ	odds
All	821	87.06%±11.3	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values16 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 825 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$714 1,020 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$465 664 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 333	$373 533 coins	5.8%	3	2.5	1.21×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 10,000	$323 461 coins	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 500	$197 282 coins	2.0%	1	1.7	0.61×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$107 153 coins	44.3%	54	66.0	0.82×
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 333	$70.70 101 coins	1.1%	1	2.5	0.40×
M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$50.69 72.42 coins	2.6%	12	8.3	1.45×
Sticker \| crush (Foil) \| London 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 33	$40.84 58.34 coins	6.3%	19	24.8	0.77×
P250 \| Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$36.88 52.69 coins	7.6%	43	33.0	1.30×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$18.03 25.75 coins	5.6%	58	49.5	1.17×
M249 \| Blizzard Marbleized (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	12.0%	$17.08 24.4 coins	10.6%	118	99.0	1.19×
AK-47 \| Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	10.0%	$13.13 18.75 coins	6.8%	77	82.5	0.93×
MP7 \| Asterion (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	16.0%	$3.30 4.72 coins	2.7%	133	132.0	1.01×
PP-Bizon \| Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$3.11 4.45 coins	2.9%	126	148.5	0.85×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	21.2%	$0.78 1.12 coins	0.9%	180	174.7	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$21.2930.41 coins$3.114.45 coins0.15x7h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$21.2930.41 coins$0.781.12 coins0.04x7h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specArcs$21.2930.41 coins$0.781.12 coins0.04x7h

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$21.2930.41 coins$13.1318.75 coins0.62x7h

P250 | Undertow (Factory New)weapon · classified$21.2930.41 coins$36.8852.69 coins1.73x7h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$21.2930.41 coins$0.781.12 coins0.04x9h

MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumerRed$21.2930.41 coins$3.304.72 coins0.16x9h

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$21.2930.41 coins$13.1318.75 coins0.62x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 20:20 UTC	$21.29	90.90%	16
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$21.31	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$21.31	90.90%	16
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$22.53	90.90%	16
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$22.53	90.91%	16
4 Nov, 22:33 UTC	$22.53	90.90%	16
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$22.55	90.92%	16

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 8.2%classified 10.0%rare 0.3%extraordinary 0.3%restricted 11.0%remarkable 3.0%industrial 12.0%consumer 16.0%mil spec 39.2%best hit —