Trick or Treat Budget
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$26.28
37.54 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $23.89 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.99%
5,424 openings, odds method
Variance
1.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
72.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,435 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $107 153 coins | 35.9% | 424 | 434.8 | 0.98× |
| M4A4 | Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 67 | $92.40 132 coins | 5.8% | 87 | 81.5 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 14 | $74.20 106 coins | 21.7% | 404 | 380.5 | 1.06× |
| AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red | 1 in 25 | $32.17 45.95 coins | 5.4% | 232 | 217.4 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 14 | $27.10 38.71 coins | 7.9% | 390 | 380.5 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $19.62 28.03 coins | 8.2% | 542 | 543.5 | 1.00× |
| Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 11.0% | $19.03 27.19 coins | 8.8% | 592 | 597.9 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Leather (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 1 in 11 | $7.35 10.5 coins | 2.8% | 486 | 489.1 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $3.58 5.11 coins | 2.5% | 940 | 924.0 | 1.02× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted | 25.5% | $0.90 1.29 coins | 1.0% | 1,338 | 1385.9 | 0.97× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 12 Nov, 02:34 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedUnfairScroll27$26.2837.54 coins$0.901.29 coins0.03x
P2000 | Woodsman (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedUnfairScroll27$26.2837.54 coins$19.6228.03 coins0.75x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $26.28 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $25.91 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $26.22 | 90.92% | 10 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $26.22 | 90.90% | 10 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $26.22 | 90.92% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%classified 12.5%red 4.0%restricted 59.5%industrial 9.0%best hit —