Trickery Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$86.79

124 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $78.90 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

83.69%

212 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

19 openings · below min

7 days

82.45%±13.87138 openings

30 days

83.69%±11.19212 openings

since tracking started

83.69%±11.19212 openings

48.0%86.0%124.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	19	86.20%±37.4	—	odds
7d	138	82.45%±13.9	−1.2σ	odds
30d	212	83.69%±11.2	−1.3σ	odds
All	212	83.69%±11.2	−1.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 212 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$295 421 coins	1.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 33	$251 358 coins	9.5%	6	6.4	0.94×
★ Nomad Knife \| Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · rare	1 in 200	$237 338 coins	1.5%	3	1.1	2.83×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$225 321 coins	2.8%	5	2.1	2.36×
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	10.0%	$207 296 coins	26.3%	11	21.2	0.52×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 20	$158 225 coins	10.0%	10	10.6	0.94×
Galil AR \| Chatterbox (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	15.0%	$109 155 coins	20.6%	32	31.8	1.01×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	10.0%	$57.77 82.53 coins	7.3%	23	21.2	1.08×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	20.0%	$51.30 73.29 coins	13.0%	44	42.4	1.04×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	10.0%	$38.76 55.37 coins	4.9%	17	21.2	0.80×
PP-Bizon \| Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$10.81 15.44 coins	2.1%	37	31.8	1.16×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	10.0%	$0.73 1.05 coins	0.1%	24	21.2	1.13×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restrictedLucky Buddha$86.79124 coins$10.8115.44 coins0.12x19h

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDont Carry Me$86.79124 coins$10.8115.44 coins0.12x21h

M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertDont Carry Me$86.79124 coins$51.3073.29 coins0.59x21h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covertDont Carry Me$86.79124 coins$38.7655.37 coins0.45x21h

M4A1-S | Player Two (Factory New)weapon · covertDont Carry Me$86.79124 coins$158225 coins1.81x21h

USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$86.79124 coins$57.7782.53 coins0.67x22h

AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert$86.79124 coins$207296 coins2.39x22h

AWP | Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covertViggerMcNieger$86.79124 coins$38.7655.37 coins0.45x22h

M4A4 | The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert$86.79124 coins$51.3073.29 coins0.59x22h

PP-Bizon | Blue Streak (Factory New)weapon · restricted$86.79124 coins$10.8115.44 coins0.12x22h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$86.79	90.91%	12
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$86.80	90.91%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$86.66	90.91%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$84.52	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 74.5%rare 0.5%restricted 15.0%mil spec 10.0%best hit —