Trojan Horse

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$6.23

8.9 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $5.66 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.49%

8,380 openings, odds method

Variance

7.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

11.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

91.02%±16.751,026 openings

7 days

85.64%±6.576,577 openings

30 days

86.49%±5.828,380 openings

since tracking started

86.49%±5.828,380 openings

73.5%91.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,026	91.02%±16.8	+0.0σ	odds
7d	6,577	85.64%±6.57	−1.6σ	odds
30d	8,380	86.49%±5.82	−1.5σ	odds
All	8,380	86.49%±5.82	−1.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,384 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves \| Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 30,303	$1,432 2,045 coins	0.8%	0	0.3	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 21,277	$1,292 1,845 coins	1.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 14,286	$398 568 coins	0.5%	0	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,857	$291 416 coins	1.8%	2	2.9	0.68×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 1,538	$166 237 coins	1.9%	7	5.4	1.28×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,538	$87.50 125 coins	1.0%	5	5.4	0.92×
Sticker \| pashaBiceps (Foil) \| Cologne 2015sticker · exotic	1 in 222	$53.00 75.71 coins	4.2%	40	37.7	1.06×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 167	$46.17 65.96 coins	4.9%	40	50.3	0.80×
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 105	$34.22 48.88 coins	5.7%	78	79.6	0.98×
Souvenir AUG \| Condemned (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 69	$30.95 44.21 coins	7.9%	105	121.6	0.86×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$25.16 35.94 coins	6.4%	125	121.6	1.03×
P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$23.86 34.09 coins	11.8%	223	234.8	0.95×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Bratatat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 31	$22.21 31.73 coins	12.6%	248	270.0	0.92×
MAG-7 \| Irradiated Alert (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 29	$17.09 24.41 coins	10.6%	310	293.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$11.20 16 coins	7.5%	321	318.6	1.01×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$10.85 15.5 coins	7.7%	335	335.4	1.00×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$6.34 9.05 coins	4.5%	352	335.4	1.05×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$2.74 3.92 coins	2.5%	451	436.0	1.03×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$1.79 2.56 coins	1.7%	450	452.7	0.99×
Souvenir AUG \| Spalted Wood (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	28.0%	$0.68 0.97 coins	3.4%	2,310	2347.5	0.98×
Nova \| Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	35.0%	$0.24 0.34 coins	1.5%	2,982	2934.4	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$6.238.9 coins$0.680.97 coins0.11x1m

Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$6.238.9 coins$0.240.34 coins0.04x1m

Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specBRÄTT <3$6.238.9 coins$0.240.34 coins0.04x1m

Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$6.238.9 coins$0.240.34 coins0.04x1m

Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$6.238.9 coins$0.680.97 coins0.11x1m

Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec$6.238.9 coins$0.240.34 coins0.04x1m

Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$6.238.9 coins$0.680.97 coins0.11x3m

Nova | Wood Fired (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specBRÄTT <3$6.238.9 coins$0.240.34 coins0.04x3m

StatTrak™ Negev | Bratatat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$6.238.9 coins$22.2131.73 coins3.57x3m

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified$6.238.9 coins$10.8515.5 coins1.74x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$6.23	90.91%	21
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$6.24	90.93%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$6.24	90.92%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$6.31	90.86%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$6.31	90.89%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 1.0%covert 0.6%classified 10.8%epic 0.1%exotic 0.4%industrial 29.5%restricted 10.7%mil spec 38.2%consumer 3.5%milspec 5.2%best hit —