Trump
A case on CSGORoll (knives, 1%, awp, rifles), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.93
4.19 coins
Advertised RTP
90.96%
EV $2.67 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.43%
91.7K openings, odds method
Variance
346.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 208
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
98.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 91.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.93 | 90.96% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.98 | 90.85% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $3.00 | 91.00% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.97 | 90.95% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 0.0%covert 0.5%high 0.0%base 0.0%extraordinary 0.2%exotic 0.1%classified 0.1%restricted 0.5%common 98.6%best hit $1,708 (575.5x)