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A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$12.47
17.82 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $11.34 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.96%
1,720 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.1%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,720 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
M249 | Blizzard Marbleized (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial$12.4717.82 coins$12.0917.27 coins0.97x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $12.47 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $12.46 | 90.92% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $13.55 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $13.57 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $13.66 | 90.89% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $13.64 | 90.90% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 7.1%restricted 47.9%industrial 33.0%mil spec 12.0%best hit —