Undead

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$84.86

121 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $77.15 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

81.28%

20 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

20 openings · below min

30 days

20 openings · below min

since tracking started

20 openings · below min

22.0%81.3%140.5%

Small sample. 20 openings and 3.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	20	81.28%±58.8	—	odds
30d	20	81.28%±58.8	—	odds
All	20	81.28%±58.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 20 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$827 1,182 coins	16.1%	0	0.3	—
M4A4 \| Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$200 286 coins	20.8%	2	1.6	1.25×
★ Bayonetknife · covert	1 in 67	$194 277 coins	3.8%	2	0.3	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 33	$186 265 coins	7.2%	0	0.6	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 33	$155 221 coins	6.0%	1	0.6	—
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$120 171 coins	9.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Falchion Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 20	$102 145 coins	6.6%	1	1.0	1.00×
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$86.10 123 coins	6.7%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 20	$83.30 119 coins	5.4%	0	1.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 13	$83.30 119 coins	8.6%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	27.0%	$15.42 22.03 coins	5.4%	5	5.4	0.93×
M4A4 \| Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	26.0%	$12.26 17.52 coins	4.1%	7	5.2	1.35×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$84.86121 coins$15.4222.03 coins0.18x1d

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert$84.86121 coins$200286 coins2.36x1d

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covertkarma$84.86121 coins$86.10123 coins1.01x1d

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$84.86121 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.14x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$84.86121 coins$15.4222.03 coins0.18x1d

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$84.86121 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.14x1d

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrialkarma$84.86121 coins$12.2617.52 coins0.14x1d

M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial$83.46119 coins$12.8118.3 coins0.15x5d

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert$83.46119 coins$165235 coins1.97x5d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$84.86	90.91%	12
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$85.37	90.91%	12
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$83.46	90.91%	12

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 1.5%covert 39.5%restricted 33.0%industrial 26.0%best hit —