Underrated

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$14.17

20.24 coins

Advertised RTP

90.93%

EV $12.88 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.40%

7,313 openings, odds method

Variance

62.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 38

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

79.32%±60.34659 openings

7 days

89.19%±20.085,985 openings

30 days

90.40%±18.187,313 openings

since tracking started

90.40%±18.187,313 openings

18.5%79.5%140.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	659	79.32%±60.3	−0.4σ	odds
7d	5,985	89.19%±20.1	−0.2σ	odds
30d	7,313	90.40%±18.2	−0.1σ	odds
All	7,313	90.40%±18.2	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,313 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$4,578 6,540 coins	17.8%	5	3.7	1.37×
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Sapphire	1 in 1,667	$1,271 1,816 coins	5.9%	1	4.4	0.23×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,111	$709 1,013 coins	5.0%	3	6.6	0.46×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 200	$312 446 coins	12.1%	38	36.6	1.04×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 53	$97.30 139 coins	14.4%	135	138.9	0.97×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 111	$70.70 101 coins	4.9%	51	65.8	0.77×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 67	$64.83 92.62 coins	7.5%	123	109.7	1.12×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 13	$10.01 14.3 coins	6.2%	595	585.0	1.02×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$8.44 12.05 coins	9.8%	1,109	1097.0	1.01×
Sticker \| Magic Rush Ball (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary	1 in 20	$7.83 11.18 coins	3.0%	379	365.7	1.04×
Sticker \| Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable	20.0%	$5.30 7.57 coins	8.2%	1,481	1462.6	1.01×
Sticker \| Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable	22.0%	$2.01 2.87 coins	3.4%	1,557	1608.9	0.97×
Charm \| Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff	25.0%	$0.86 1.23 coins	1.7%	1,836	1828.3	1.00×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireZwack$14.2520.36 coins$4,6456,635 coins325.9x8d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$14.1720.24 coins$4,5786,540 coins323.1x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$14.1720.24 coins$4,5786,540 coins323.1x2d

★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · legendary · SapphireR3p csgoroll.com$14.2520.36 coins$1,2711,816 coins89.19x5d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$14.2520.36 coins$7091,013 coins49.75x4d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$14.2520.36 coins$7091,013 coins49.75x5d

★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire$14.2520.36 coins$7091,013 coins49.75x7d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$14.1720.24 coins$2.012.87 coins0.14x26m

Charm | Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff$14.1720.24 coins$0.861.23 coins0.06x26m

Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkableRusty Cake$14.1720.24 coins$5.307.57 coins0.37x26m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon$14.1720.24 coins$10.0114.3 coins0.71x26m

Sticker | Blue Gem (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$14.1720.24 coins$2.012.87 coins0.14x31m

Sticker | Lotus (Glitter)sticker · remarkable$14.1720.24 coins$5.307.57 coins0.37x31m

Charm | Lil' Teacupcharm · #8847ff$14.1720.24 coins$0.861.23 coins0.06x31m

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$14.1720.24 coins$8.4412.05 coins0.60x31m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Hydro Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · uncommonJarza$14.1720.24 coins$10.0114.3 coins0.71x31m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.93%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$14.17	90.93%	13
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$14.16	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$14.26	90.92%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$14.25	90.92%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 4.0%legendary 0.1%industrial 0.9%uncommon 8.0%restricted 15.0%extraordinary 5.0%remarkable 42.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit $4,645 (325.9x)