Underworld

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$1,504.17

2,149 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $1,367.43 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

42.41%

13 openings, odds method

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

13 openings · below min

30 days

13 openings · below min

since tracking started

13 openings · below min

-0.5%75.5%151.5%

Small sample. 13 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	13	42.41%±108.5	—	odds
30d	13	42.41%±108.5	—	odds
All	13	42.41%±108.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 13 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 250	$30.1K 42,950 coins	8.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 333	$27.5K 39,250 coins	6.0%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 154	$10.7K 15,300 coins	5.1%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| Natus Vincere (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 143	$10.3K 14,660 coins	5.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 50	$8,869 12,670 coins	13.0%	0	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 125	$7,028 10,040 coins	4.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$6,787 9,695 coins	5.0%	0	0.1	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 200	$6,657 9,510 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 182	$5,978 8,540 coins	2.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 133	$2,037 2,910 coins	1.1%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$2,033 2,905 coins	4.5%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$1,655 2,364 coins	4.2%	0	0.5	—
M4A1-S \| Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 20	$1,369 1,955 coins	5.0%	2	0.7	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 14	$1,314 1,877 coins	6.7%	1	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 15	$1,299 1,856 coins	6.2%	1	0.8	—
Souvenir AWP \| Desert Hydra (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 25	$1,295 1,850 coins	3.8%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 13	$523 747 coins	3.1%	1	1.0	0.96×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary	10.0%	$502 717 coins	3.7%	1	1.3	0.77×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	12.0%	$414 591 coins	3.6%	1	1.6	0.64×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	14.0%	$253 362 coins	2.6%	2	1.8	1.10×
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	19.4%	$246 352 coins	3.5%	4	2.5	1.59×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendarytashud$1,5112,159 coins$1,3961,994 coins0.92x6d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$1,5112,159 coins$1,3961,994 coins0.92x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1,5112,159 coins$1,3141,877 coins0.87x6d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5112,159 coins$1,3101,871 coins0.87x6d

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald$1,5112,159 coins$524749 coins0.35x6d

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred (Factory New)gloves · legendary$1,5112,159 coins$503719 coins0.33x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5042,149 coins$246352 coins0.16x2d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendary$1,5112,159 coins$1,3961,994 coins0.92x6d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,5112,159 coins$266380 coins0.18x6d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5112,159 coins$225321 coins0.15x6d

M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Factory New)weapon · legendarytashud$1,5112,159 coins$1,3961,994 coins0.92x6d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Factory New)weapon · covert$1,5112,159 coins$1,3101,871 coins0.87x6d

★ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1$1,5112,159 coins$225321 coins0.15x6d

★ Stiletto Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary$1,5112,159 coins$1,3141,877 coins0.87x6d

★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested)knife · coverttashud$1,5112,159 coins$434620 coins0.29x6d

★ Ursus Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2$1,5112,159 coins$266380 coins0.18x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$1,504	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$1,511	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 4.0%legendary 23.1%remarkable 0.7%covert 72.2%best hit $1,396 (0.92x)