Upgrade
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1.97
2.81 coins
Advertised RTP
90.99%
EV $1.79 from 22 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.32%
60.7K openings, odds method
Variance
920.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,500
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60.9K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $1.97 | 90.99% | 22 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $1.97 | 90.99% | 22 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.99 | 90.93% | 22 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.0%covert 0.1%remarkable 0.0%restricted 0.0%extraordinary 0.1%classified 0.0%consumer 99.8%best hit $4,035 (2,052x)