Urban
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.43
3.47 coins
Advertised RTP
90.85%
EV $2.21 from 24 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.78%
28.7K openings, odds method
Variance
5.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.2%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedCekoS$2.433.47 coins$18.4326.33 coins7.59x
USP-S | Night Ops (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specvilgotbranting22$2.433.47 coins$0.190.27 coins0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC | $2.43 | 90.85% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 20:20 UTC | $2.43 | 90.87% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 08:16 UTC | $2.43 | 90.78% | 24 |
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $2.43 | 90.89% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $2.43 | 90.80% | 24 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $2.43 | 90.84% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $2.42 | 90.94% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $2.37 | 90.81% | 24 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $2.36 | 91.04% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $2.36 | 91.03% | 24 |
| 7 Nov, 11:15 UTC | $2.36 | 90.95% | 24 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $2.36 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 5 Nov, 10:39 UTC | $2.36 | 90.97% | 24 |
| 4 Nov, 22:33 UTC | $2.36 | 90.89% | 24 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $2.36 | 90.88% | 24 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.38 | 90.86% | 24 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%red 0.1%classified 5.9%mil spec 74.0%restricted 9.9%violet 2.9%consumer 7.0%best hit $186 (77.10x)