Utopia
A case on CSGORoll (knives, gloves, 30%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$97.69
140 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $88.81 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
106.62%
289 openings, odds method
Variance
4.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 15
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
73.3%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 289 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryZaneTrain$99.40142 coins$2,0332,905 coins20.46x
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New)gloves · legendary$97.69140 coins$1,3641,948 coins13.96x
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New)gloves · legendary$99.40142 coins$1,3641,948 coins13.72x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst (Factory New)gloves · legendary$97.69140 coins$1,3641,948 coins13.96x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $97.69 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $97.39 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $99.40 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 56.3%legendary 4.2%extraordinary 0.2%covert 11.6%epic 1.5%gold 9.2%mil spec 8.0%restricted 9.0%best hit $2,033 (20.46x)