Vagabond

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$5.73

8.18 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $5.21 from 22 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.24%

3,774 openings, odds method

Variance

0.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

35.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

65.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.78%±7.84337 openings

7 days

91.89%±2.543,223 openings

30 days

92.24%±2.343,774 openings

since tracking started

92.24%±2.343,774 openings

84.5%93.0%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	337	92.78%±7.84	+0.5σ	odds
7d	3,223	91.89%±2.54	+0.7σ	odds
30d	3,774	92.24%±2.34	+1.0σ	odds
All	3,774	92.24%±2.34	+1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values22 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,882 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 28,571	$32.91 47.02 coins	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 20,000	$31.05 44.36 coins	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Souvenir XM1014 \| Fallout Warning (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 11,111	$27.98 39.97 coins	0.0%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,000	$25.61 36.58 coins	0.2%	6	1.9	3.09×
USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,212	$25.18 35.97 coins	0.4%	3	3.2	0.94×
Sticker \| Team EnVyUs (Holo) \| MLG Columbus 2016sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$23.21 33.16 coins	2.2%	17	19.4	0.88×
Sticker \| OpTic Gaming (Holo) \| London 2018sticker · remarkable	1 in 200	$22.49 32.13 coins	2.2%	29	19.4	1.49×
Souvenir Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$20.37 29.1 coins	3.5%	21	34.9	0.60×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Nostalgia (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 105	$17.72 25.31 coins	3.2%	32	36.9	0.87×
P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$16.31 23.3 coins	3.1%	41	38.8	1.06×
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$12.25 17.5 coins	2.8%	62	46.6	1.33×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 57	$11.19 15.98 coins	3.8%	51	67.9	0.75×
AUG \| Fleet Flock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 50	$10.42 14.88 coins	4.0%	95	77.6	1.22×
Five-SeveN \| Copper Galaxy (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$10.29 14.7 coins	4.2%	83	81.5	1.02×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 43	$9.37 13.39 coins	4.1%	91	89.3	1.02×
MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$8.30 11.86 coins	4.1%	83	100.9	0.82×
Souvenir P250 \| Contamination (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	1 in 15	$7.05 10.07 coins	8.8%	261	252.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	12.6%	$6.84 9.77 coins	16.5%	510	487.2	1.05×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	12.8%	$5.41 7.73 coins	13.3%	494	495.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Powercore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	14.0%	$4.49 6.41 coins	12.1%	554	543.5	1.02×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	15.0%	$2.93 4.18 coins	8.4%	587	582.3	1.01×
R8 Revolver \| Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	23.3%	$0.65 0.93 coins	2.9%	861	902.6	0.95×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.738.18 coins$0.650.93 coins0.11x12m

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil specgaygay$5.738.18 coins$0.650.93 coins0.11x12m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.738.18 coins$2.934.18 coins0.51x12m

MP7 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restrictedRusty Cake$5.738.18 coins$8.3011.86 coins1.45x12m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.738.18 coins$2.934.18 coins0.51x20m

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.738.18 coins$0.650.93 coins0.11x20m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$5.738.18 coins$2.934.18 coins0.51x20m

R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$5.738.18 coins$0.650.93 coins0.11x20m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Naga (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedJarza$5.738.18 coins$2.934.18 coins0.51x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$5.73	90.91%	22
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$5.73	90.89%	22
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$5.74	90.92%	22
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$5.96	90.86%	22
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$5.97	90.89%	22
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$5.96	90.90%	22
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$5.98	90.88%	22
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$6.13	90.92%	22

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 18.1%mil spec 24.5%industrial 6.5%restricted 48.2%remarkable 1.0%Legendary 1.8%best hit —