Venom

A case on CSGORoll (10%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$88.10

126 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $80.09 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d

86.01%

172 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

100.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

90.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.46%±15.93122 openings

7 days

86.64%±13.52166 openings

30 days

86.01%±13.26172 openings

since tracking started

86.01%±13.26172 openings

72.0%89.5%107.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	122	90.46%±15.9	−0.1σ	odds
7d	166	86.64%±13.5	−0.6σ	odds
30d	172	86.01%±13.3	−0.7σ	odds
All	172	86.01%±13.3	−0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 172 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 10,000	$1,170 1,672 coins	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 3,333	$874 1,248 coins	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir MAG-7 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$582 832 coins	7.3%	2	1.7	1.16×
Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare	1 in 588	$563 804 coins	1.2%	0	0.3	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 345	$390 557 coins	1.4%	0	0.5	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 67	$356 508 coins	6.7%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 200	$316 452 coins	2.0%	1	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Hand Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$316 452 coins	4.0%	2	1.7	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$292 417 coins	1.8%	0	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 200	$214 305 coins	1.3%	0	0.9	—
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 67	$153 218 coins	2.9%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 67	$101 144 coins	1.9%	1	2.6	0.39×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 67	$98.70 141 coins	1.8%	2	2.6	0.78×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	90.0%	$59.91 85.58 coins	67.3%	160	154.8	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$88.10126 coins$582832 coins6.61x10h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$88.10126 coins$59.9185.58 coins0.68x9h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$88.10126 coins$59.9185.58 coins0.68x9h

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert$88.10126 coins$59.9185.58 coins0.68x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$88.10	90.91%	14
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$92.11	90.91%	14
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$92.20	90.91%	14

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 95.8%restricted 3.5%rare 0.2%classified 0.5%best hit $582 (6.61x)