Vertigo

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$68.22

97.46 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $62.02 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.10%

4,764 openings, odds method

Variance

36.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 87

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

259 openings · below min

7 days

95.79%±19.333,744 openings

30 days

88.10%±17.144,764 openings

since tracking started

88.10%±17.144,764 openings

64.5%139.0%213.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	259	138.95%±73.7	—	odds
7d	3,744	95.79%±19.3	+0.5σ	odds
30d	4,764	88.10%±17.1	−0.3σ	odds
All	4,764	88.10%±17.1	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,764 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$6,941 9,915 coins	16.8%	5	7.1	0.70×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 2,000	$5,817 8,310 coins	4.7%	3	2.4	1.26×
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$4,281 6,115 coins	6.9%	5	4.8	1.05×
Sticker \| Titan \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 286	$3,136 4,480 coins	17.7%	17	16.7	1.02×
★ Moto Gloves \| Cool Mint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 200	$1,724 2,463 coins	13.9%	21	23.8	0.88×
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$1,544 2,206 coins	6.2%	13	11.9	1.09×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 100	$929 1,327 coins	15.0%	50	47.6	1.05×
★ Hand Wraps \| Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 167	$360 514 coins	3.5%	36	28.6	1.26×
★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 100	$348 497 coins	5.6%	52	47.6	1.09×
★ Hand Wraps \| Cobalt Skulls (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 100	$310 443 coins	5.0%	36	47.6	0.76×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	30.0%	$3.94 5.63 coins	1.9%	1,407	1429.2	0.98×
Dual Berettas \| Marina (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	30.0%	$3.69 5.27 coins	1.8%	1,396	1429.2	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	35.0%	$1.85 2.64 coins	1.0%	1,723	1667.4	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covertJhon csgoroll.com$68.2297.46 coins$6,9419,915 coins101.7x2h

AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$68.2297.46 coins$6,9419,915 coins101.7x19h

AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$68.2297.46 coins$6,9419,915 coins101.7x1d

AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$68.4097.71 coins$6,9419,915 coins101.5x2d

AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert$68.9998.56 coins$6,9309,900 coins100.4x3d

AWP | Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covertBierBerg$68.9998.56 coins$6,9309,900 coins100.4x8d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$68.9998.56 coins$5,9438,490 coins86.14x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$68.9998.56 coins$5,9438,490 coins86.14x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$68.9998.56 coins$5,9438,490 coins86.14x8d

★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$68.9998.56 coins$4,5056,435 coins65.29x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$68.2297.46 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x22m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$68.2297.46 coins$3.945.63 coins0.06x22m

PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$68.2297.46 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x22m

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint (Factory New)gloves · legendaryJhon csgoroll.com$68.2297.46 coins$360514 coins5.27x22m

PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$68.2297.46 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x23m

Dual Berettas | Marina (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$68.2297.46 coins$3.695.27 coins0.05x23m

CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$68.2297.46 coins$3.945.63 coins0.06x23m

PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$68.2297.46 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x23m

PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil specJhon csgoroll.com$68.2297.46 coins$1.852.64 coins0.03x23m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$68.22	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$68.40	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$68.99	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.6%high 0.4%legendary 1.1%extraordinary 1.0%classified 30.0%restricted 30.0%mil spec 35.0%best hit $6,941 (101.7x)