Vibrant
A case on CSGORoll (40%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$77.20
110 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $70.19 from 14 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.56%
41 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
39.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
49.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 41 openings and 16.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 41 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$77.01110 coins$134192 coins1.75x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$77.01110 coins$134192 coins1.75x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$77.01110 coins$134192 coins1.75x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $77.20 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $77.25 | 90.91% | 14 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $77.01 | 90.91% | 14 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.3%mil spec 6.0%epic 0.7%classified 31.0%restricted 9.0%remarkable 20.0%best hit —