Vice Versa
A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$541.37
773 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $492.16 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
100.90%
5 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
62.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 5 openings and 1.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4THIS IS MY JUICE$549784 coins$1,2241,748 coins2.23x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4)knife · covert · Phase 4THIS IS MY JUICE$549784 coins$1,2241,748 coins2.23x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
No data in this window
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $541 | 90.91% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $549 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%covert 31.2%extraordinary 18.8%legendary 25.0%consumer 25.0%best hit $1,224 (2.23x)