Victory

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$201.77

288 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $183.42 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

96.95%

73 openings, odds method

Variance

4.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

55 openings · below min

30 days

73 openings · below min

since tracking started

73 openings · below min

32.0%89.0%146.0%

Small sample. 73 openings and 11.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	55	88.45%±55.8	—	odds
30d	73	96.95%±48.5	—	odds
All	73	96.95%±48.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 73 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 333	$7,252 10,360 coins	11.9%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$3,024 4,320 coins	0.8%	0	0.0	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$1,067 1,524 coins	0.6%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$947 1,353 coins	2.6%	1	0.4	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Emerald Web (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 23	$587 838 coins	13.8%	4	3.1	1.27×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 77	$566 809 coins	4.0%	4	0.9	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 42	$457 653 coins	6.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
★ Driver Gloves \| King Snake (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$412 588 coins	1.7%	1	0.5	—
★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 27	$393 561 coins	7.9%	5	2.7	1.85×
★ Skeleton Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 56	$382 545 coins	3.7%	1	1.3	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	14.0%	$235 336 coins	18.0%	9	10.2	0.88×
★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 36	$225 321 coins	3.4%	3	2.0	1.47×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 20	$130 186 coins	3.5%	3	3.7	0.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 11	$118 168 coins	5.8%	7	6.6	1.07×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	12.0%	$113 162 coins	7.4%	9	8.8	1.03×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Mogul (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 14	$71.40 102 coins	2.7%	4	5.1	0.78×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	20.0%	$52.51 75.02 coins	5.7%	13	14.6	0.89×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	15.0%	$5.94 8.48 coins	0.5%	9	10.9	0.82×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.