Viking

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$39.10

55.85 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $35.54 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.60%

798 openings, odds method

Variance

17.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 56

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

40 openings · below min

7 days

97.52%±31.29695 openings

30 days

97.60%±29.20798 openings

since tracking started

97.60%±29.20798 openings

-0.5%120.3%241.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	40	109.95%±130.6	—	odds
7d	695	97.52%±31.3	+0.4σ	odds
30d	798	97.60%±29.2	+0.4σ	odds
All	798	97.60%±29.2	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 798 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Slingshot (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,176	$2,790 3,985 coins	6.7%	0	0.7	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 1,053	$1,970 2,815 coins	5.3%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 435	$1,547 2,210 coins	10.0%	3	1.8	1.63×
★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 256	$1,292 1,845 coins	14.2%	2	3.1	0.64×
MAG-7 \| Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$636 908 coins	8.9%	6	4.0	1.50×
AK-47 \| X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 208	$531 758 coins	7.2%	6	3.8	1.57×
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 122	$471 673 coins	10.9%	6	6.5	0.92×
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$219 313 coins	6.2%	7	8.0	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$85.40 122 coins	3.6%	9	12.0	0.75×
MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Packagecontainer · base	1 in 63	$48.68 69.54 coins	2.2%	22	12.8	1.72×
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 56	$48.53 69.33 coins	2.5%	18	14.4	1.25×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 48	$48.53 69.33 coins	2.9%	13	16.8	0.78×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Cartel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 16	$41.03 58.61 coins	7.4%	69	51.1	1.35×
M4A4 \| Radiation Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$29.48 42.11 coins	5.4%	64	51.9	1.23×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$11.20 16 coins	2.0%	43	51.9	0.83×
Autograph Capsule \| Natus Vincere \| Cluj-Napoca 2015other · base	1 in 14	$5.25 7.5 coins	1.0%	52	55.9	0.93×
SG 553 \| Traveler (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	11.5%	$3.85 5.5 coins	1.2%	98	91.8	1.07×
Sticker \| byali \| Cologne 2016sticker · high	14.0%	$2.65 3.78 coins	1.0%	118	111.7	1.06×
USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 14	$2.42 3.46 coins	0.5%	51	56.7	0.90×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Plume (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	14.4%	$1.53 2.18 coins	0.6%	116	114.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common	16.0%	$0.80 1.14 coins	0.4%	94	127.7	0.74×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$39.1055.85 coins$1,9702,815 coins50.40x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.0755.82 coins$1,5472,210 coins39.59x1d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.4556.35 coins$1,5472,210 coins39.22x4d

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$39.4556.35 coins$1,5472,210 coins39.22x7d

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$39.0755.82 coins$1,2921,845 coins33.05x1d

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$39.4556.35 coins$1,2921,845 coins32.74x4d

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.4556.35 coins$638911 coins16.17x4d

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classifiedpimpinainteasy$39.4556.35 coins$638911 coins16.17x6d

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.4556.35 coins$638911 coins16.17x6d

MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified$39.1055.85 coins$636908 coins16.26x19h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Autograph Capsule | Natus Vincere | Cluj-Napoca 2015other · base$39.1055.85 coins$5.257.5 coins0.13x11h

MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Factory New)weapon · mil specPontus$39.1055.85 coins$85.40122 coins2.18x11h

MLG Columbus 2016 Cache Souvenir Packagecontainer · base$39.1055.85 coins$48.6869.54 coins1.25x11h

StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · commonPontus$39.1055.85 coins$0.801.14 coins0.02x11h

StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common$39.1055.85 coins$0.801.14 coins0.02x11h

Autograph Capsule | Natus Vincere | Cluj-Napoca 2015other · base$39.1055.85 coins$5.257.5 coins0.13x11h

Sticker | byali | Cologne 2016sticker · highPontus$39.1055.85 coins$2.653.78 coins0.07x11h

StatTrak™ Nova | Plume (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$39.1055.85 coins$1.532.18 coins0.04x11h

StatTrak™ AUG | Luxe Trim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · common$39.1055.85 coins$0.801.14 coins0.02x11h

Autograph Capsule | Natus Vincere | Cluj-Napoca 2015other · basePontus$39.1055.85 coins$5.257.5 coins0.13x11h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 14:18 UTC	$39.10	90.90%	21
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$39.07	90.90%	21
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$39.07	90.92%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$39.14	90.91%	21
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$39.43	90.90%	21
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$39.45	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$39.38	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.5%covert 2.6%classified 6.9%mil spec 22.4%base 8.6%rare 3.9%restricted 6.5%industrial 18.6%high 14.0%common 16.0%best hit $1,970 (50.40x)