Viking Case

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$52.44

74.92 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $47.68 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.31%

921 openings, odds method

Variance

3.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 12

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.55%±21.67276 openings

7 days

89.50%±12.79810 openings

30 days

95.31%±12.01921 openings

since tracking started

95.31%±12.01921 openings

56.0%82.0%108.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	276	78.55%±21.7	−1.1σ	odds
7d	810	89.50%±12.8	−0.2σ	odds
30d	921	95.31%±12.0	+0.7σ	odds
All	921	95.31%±12.0	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 921 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100,000	$9,370 13,385 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 20,000	$1,438 2,054 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 100,000	$1,194 1,706 coins	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Emerald Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$363 519 coins	22.9%	33	27.6	1.19×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 1,000	$348 497 coins	0.7%	1	0.9	—
P90 \| Astral Jörmungandr (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$315 450 coins	19.8%	25	27.6	0.90×
AUG \| Flame Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$305 435 coins	12.8%	24	18.4	1.30×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	10.0%	$109 156 coins	22.9%	86	92.1	0.93×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 20	$87.50 125 coins	9.2%	51	46.1	1.11×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted	11.9%	$20.60 29.43 coins	5.1%	91	109.5	0.83×
FAMAS \| Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumer	20.0%	$9.78 13.97 coins	4.1%	173	184.2	0.94×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	20.0%	$3.16 4.51 coins	1.3%	200	184.2	1.09×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Slashed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	25.0%	$1.53 2.18 coins	0.8%	237	230.3	1.03×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted$52.4474.92 coins$3.164.51 coins0.06x5h

FAMAS | Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumer$52.4474.92 coins$9.7813.97 coins0.19x5h

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restrictedGohan$52.4474.92 coins$20.6029.43 coins0.39x5h

FAMAS | Night Borre (Factory New)weapon · consumer$52.4474.92 coins$9.7813.97 coins0.19x6h

Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New)weapon · restricted$52.4474.92 coins$20.6029.43 coins0.39x6h

AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covertGohan$52.4474.92 coins$109156 coins2.08x6h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$52.4474.92 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x6h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec3GO$52.4474.92 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x6h

AWP | Man-o'-war (Field-Tested)weapon · covert$52.4474.92 coins$109156 coins2.08x6h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$52.4474.92 coins$1.532.18 coins0.03x6h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$52.44	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$52.02	90.91%	13
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$52.17	90.91%	13
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$52.18	90.91%	13
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$52.16	90.91%	13

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 10.1%restricted 39.9%classified 5.0%consumer 20.0%mil spec 25.0%best hit —