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Violet Dreams

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$46.75
66.78 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $42.49 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.57%
452 openings, odds method
Variance
12.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 29
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
28 openings · below min
7 days
90.68%±35.06388 openings
30 days
97.57%±32.49452 openings
since tracking started
97.57%±32.49452 openings
-0.5%99.3%199.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2868.58%±130.0—odds
7d38890.68%±35.1−0.0σodds
30d45297.57%±32.5+0.4σodds
All45297.57%±32.5+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 452 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 400$2,088 2,983 coins12.3%11.10.88×
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)gloves · legendary1 in 400$1,716 2,451 coins10.1%31.12.65×
★ Butterfly Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 400$1,614 2,305 coins9.5%01.10.00×
★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 400$570 814 coins3.4%11.10.88×
★ Ursus Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$329 470 coins3.9%32.31.33×
★ Talon Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 200$326 465 coins3.8%32.31.33×
★ Nomad Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 133$257 367 coins4.5%23.40.59×
★ StatTrak™ Paracord Knife | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · epic1 in 133$248 354 coins4.4%43.41.18×
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 100$192 274 coins4.5%44.50.88×
★ Skeleton Knife | Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · epic1 in 100$158 226 coins3.7%44.50.88×
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert1 in 100$87.50 125 coins2.1%34.50.66×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 100$80.50 115 coins1.9%74.51.55×
★ Survival Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · rare1 in 100$64.13 91.62 coins1.5%84.51.77×
★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 67$49.87 71.24 coins1.8%106.81.47×
Sticker | Ultraviolet Poison Frog (Foil)sticker · exotic30.0%$27.60 39.43 coins19.5%128135.60.94×
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec30.0%$12.66 18.09 coins8.9%144135.61.06×
MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec30.0%$6.07 8.67 coins4.3%127135.60.94×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$46.7266.74 coins$2,0882,983 coins44.70x
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)gloves · legendaryRobond$46.7266.74 coins$1,7332,476 coins37.10x
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)gloves · legendary$46.7566.78 coins$1,7162,451 coins36.70x
★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork (Factory New)gloves · legendary$46.7566.78 coins$1,7162,451 coins36.70x
★ Karambit | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covertI AM THE PIRATE KING$46.7566.78 coins$570814 coins12.19x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$6.078.67 coins0.13x
MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$6.078.67 coins0.13x
MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$6.078.67 coins0.13x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$12.6618.09 coins0.27x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$12.6618.09 coins0.27x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec🔸Regular🔸$46.7566.78 coins$12.6618.09 coins0.27x
★ Bayonet | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)knife · covert$46.7566.78 coins$192274 coins4.10x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$12.6618.09 coins0.27x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$46.7566.78 coins$12.6618.09 coins0.27x
SG 553 | Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specJompen♿$46.7566.78 coins$12.6618.09 coins0.27x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC$46.7590.91%17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$46.4690.90%17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$46.7290.91%17
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 5.3%legendary 0.3%epic 2.5%mil spec 61.0%rare 1.0%exotic 30.0%best hit $2,088 (44.70x)