Visions

A case on CSGORoll (50%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$877.61

1,254 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $797.83 from 21 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.77%

62 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

61.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

16 openings · below min

7 days

58 openings · below min

30 days

62 openings · below min

since tracking started

62 openings · below min

57.5%130.8%204.0%

Small sample. 62 openings and 8.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	16	136.38%±66.8	—	odds
7d	58	94.94%±35.7	—	odds
30d	62	92.77%±34.5	—	odds
All	62	92.77%±34.5	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 62 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Team LDLC.com (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 10,000	$20.8K 29,650 coins	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 3,333	$13.5K 19,275 coins	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Gungnir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$6,941 9,915 coins	1.3%	0	0.1	—
★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 2,000	$5,978 8,540 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendary	1 in 154	$5,684 8,120 coins	4.6%	1	0.4	—
M4A4 \| Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband	1 in 222	$5,156 7,365 coins	2.9%	1	0.3	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,000	$4,281 6,115 coins	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 400	$4,197 5,995 coins	1.3%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 20	$4,035 5,765 coins	25.3%	1	3.1	0.32×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire	1 in 1,250	$3,941 5,630 coins	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl)knife · covert · Black Pearl	1 in 125	$2,755 3,935 coins	2.8%	0	0.5	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4	1 in 67	$2,681 3,830 coins	5.0%	1	0.9	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 13	$1,489 2,127 coins	14.9%	10	5.0	2.02×
★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 83	$1,467 2,096 coins	2.2%	0	0.7	—
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald	1 in 33	$1,194 1,706 coins	4.5%	4	1.9	2.15×
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	11.0%	$1,066 1,523 coins	14.7%	7	6.8	1.03×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 17	$937 1,339 coins	7.0%	7	3.7	1.88×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	11.7%	$767 1,095 coins	11.3%	2	7.3	0.28×
Sticker \| Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common	20.0%	$0.66 0.94 coins	0.0%	10	12.4	0.81×
Sticker \| Gold Teef (Foil)sticker · common	15.0%	$0.62 0.89 coins	0.0%	7	9.3	0.75×
Sticker \| Bolt Chargesticker · pink	15.0%	$0.15 0.22 coins	0.0%	11	9.3	1.18×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · legendarykarma$8781,254 coins$5,6848,120 coins6.48x13h

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$8781,254 coins$5,1567,365 coins5.87x13h

Sticker | iBUYPOWER | Katowice 2014sticker · high$8541,220 coins$4,0355,765 coins4.72x6d

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$8541,220 coins$2,6813,830 coins3.14x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$8781,254 coins$1,4892,127 coins1.70x13h

★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · covert · Emerald$8541,220 coins$1,2481,783 coins1.46x6d

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$8541,220 coins$1,0831,547 coins1.27x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Bolt Chargesticker · pinkkarma$8781,254 coins$0.150.22 coins0.00x13h

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$8781,254 coins$9371,339 coins1.07x13h

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$8781,254 coins$1,0661,523 coins1.21x13h

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert$8781,254 coins$9371,339 coins1.07x13h

★ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$8781,254 coins$1,0661,523 coins1.21x13h

M4A4 | Howl (Minimal Wear)weapon · contraband$8781,254 coins$5,1567,365 coins5.87x13h

★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covertkarma$8781,254 coins$9371,339 coins1.07x13h

Sticker | Hypnoteyes (Holo)sticker · common$8781,254 coins$0.660.94 coins0.00x13h

Sticker | Bolt Chargesticker · pink$8781,254 coins$0.150.22 coins0.00x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
9 Nov, 01:53 UTC	$878	90.91%	21
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$878	90.91%	21
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$854	90.91%	21

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.0%legendary 0.7%covert 24.1%contraband 0.4%high 5.0%extraordinary 19.7%common 35.0%pink 15.0%best hit $5,684 (6.48x)