Volatile

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$135.86

194 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $123.51 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d

75.95%

140 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

56.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

78.28%±33.96120 openings

30 days

75.95%±31.45140 openings

since tracking started

75.95%±31.45140 openings

-0.5%130.3%261.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	1.09%±259.2	—	odds
7d	120	78.28%±34.0	−0.7σ	odds
30d	140	75.95%±31.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	140	75.95%±31.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 140 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,000	$5,023 7,175 coins	4.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Hydroponic (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$3,213 4,590 coins	5.2%	0	0.3	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 333	$630 900 coins	1.5%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 33	$566 809 coins	13.8%	3	4.2	0.71×
★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 1)knife · covert · Phase 1	1 in 20	$349 498 coins	14.1%	8	7.0	1.14×
★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	11.0%	$265 379 coins	23.6%	9	15.4	0.58×
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · Sapphire	11.0%	$242 346 coins	21.6%	17	15.4	1.10×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	13.0%	$148 211 coins	15.5%	23	18.2	1.26×
Glock-18 \| Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	14.0%	$1.60 2.28 coins	0.2%	21	19.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	18.0%	$1.48 2.12 coins	0.2%	19	25.2	0.75×
R8 Revolver \| Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	24.4%	$0.95 1.36 coins	0.2%	40	34.2	1.17×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert$138197 coins$600857 coins4.34x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyLucky Buddha$136194 coins$265379 coins1.95x17h

★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Sapphire)StatTrak · knife · covert · SapphireLucky Buddha$136194 coins$242346 coins1.78x17h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$136194 coins$1.482.12 coins0.01x21h

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specalguz$136194 coins$1.482.12 coins0.01x21h

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$136194 coins$0.951.36 coins0.01x1d

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedd3ad$136194 coins$0.951.36 coins0.01x1d

Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted$136194 coins$1.602.28 coins0.01x1d

R8 Revolver | Amber Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$136194 coins$0.951.36 coins0.01x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 08:16 UTC	$136	90.91%	11
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$136	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$136	90.91%	11
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$136	90.91%	11
4 Nov, 14:11 UTC	$138	90.91%	11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$138	90.91%	11

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 43.4%classified 24.6%restricted 14.0%mil spec 18.0%best hit $600 (4.34x)