Volcanic

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$188.91

270 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $171.73 from 20 items

Observed RTP, 30d

60.36%

117 openings, odds method

Variance

7.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

6 openings · below min

7 days

98 openings · below min

30 days

60.36%±50.24117 openings

since tracking started

60.36%±50.24117 openings

-0.5%124.5%249.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	6	26.09%±222.8	—	odds
7d	98	55.42%±54.9	—	odds
30d	117	60.36%±50.2	−1.2σ	odds
All	117	60.36%±50.2	−1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 117 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 100,000	$38K 54,245 coins	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Howl (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · contraband	1 in 5,000	$14.4K 20,545 coins	1.7%	0	0.0	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Kimono (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 3,333	$12K 17,180 coins	2.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 10,000	$9,534 13,620 coins	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 1,000	$7,308 10,440 coins	4.3%	0	0.1	—
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,041	$4,284 6,120 coins	1.2%	0	0.1	—
Sticker \| LGB eSports (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable	1 in 667	$4,088 5,840 coins	3.6%	0	0.2	—
Sticker \| iBUYPOWER \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 400	$4,035 5,765 coins	5.9%	0	0.3	—
★ StatTrak™ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · legendary · Ruby	1 in 500	$2,051 2,930 coins	2.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 182	$1,757 2,510 coins	5.6%	1	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 294	$1,114 1,591 coins	2.2%	0	0.4	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 100	$804 1,148 coins	4.7%	1	1.2	0.85×
★ Ursus Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 125	$636 909 coins	3.0%	0	0.9	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 40	$627 896 coins	9.1%	2	2.9	0.68×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 50	$582 832 coins	6.8%	1	2.3	0.43×
★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 33	$435 622 coins	7.6%	2	3.5	0.57×
AUG \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$328 468 coins	7.6%	5	4.7	1.07×
Sticker \| HellRaisers (Foil) \| Atlanta 2017sticker · exotic	25.0%	$86.80 124 coins	12.6%	21	29.3	0.72×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	30.0%	$68.27 97.53 coins	11.9%	43	35.1	1.23×
MP7 \| Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	30.0%	$39.78 56.83 coins	6.9%	41	35.1	1.17×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ StatTrak™ Stiletto Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby$190272 coins$1,7572,510 coins9.23x7d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$190272 coins$8491,213 coins4.46x3d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$190272 coins$611873 coins3.21x4d

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure (Factory New)gloves · legendary$190272 coins$611873 coins3.21x5d

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Autotronic (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert560 HP$190272 coins$575822 coins3.02x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$189270 coins$39.7856.83 coins0.21x10h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$189270 coins$68.2797.53 coins0.36x10h

MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$189270 coins$39.7856.83 coins0.21x10h

MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec560 HP$189270 coins$39.7856.83 coins0.21x10h

MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$189270 coins$39.7856.83 coins0.21x1d

AUG | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec$189270 coins$328468 coins1.73x1d

MP7 | Full Stop (Factory New)weapon · mil specNxxh$189270 coins$39.7856.83 coins0.21x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$189	90.91%	20
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$190	90.91%	20
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$190	90.91%	20

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedremarkable 0.2%contraband 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%covert 7.5%high 0.3%legendary 2.7%classified 0.3%mil spec 34.0%exotic 25.0%restricted 30.0%best hit $1,757 (9.23x)