Voodoo

A case on CSGORoll (25%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$54.71

78.15 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $49.73 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.31%

1,095 openings, odds method

Variance

7.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 23

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

97.10%±17.07978 openings

30 days

94.31%±16.141,095 openings

since tracking started

94.31%±16.141,095 openings

-0.5%115.0%230.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	110.50%±119.1	—	odds
7d	978	97.10%±17.1	+0.7σ	odds
30d	1,095	94.31%±16.1	+0.4σ	odds
All	1,095	94.31%±16.1	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,095 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Sticker \| Reason Gaming \| Katowice 2014sticker · high	1 in 3,333	$3,164 4,520 coins	1.9%	0	0.3	—
★ Skeleton Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 10,000	$1,921 2,745 coins	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 2,000	$1,523 2,175 coins	1.5%	2	0.5	—
★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 5,000	$1,299 1,855 coins	0.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 200	$1,091 1,559 coins	11.0%	7	5.5	1.28×
★ StatTrak™ Karambit \| Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 333	$1,003 1,433 coins	6.1%	2	3.3	0.61×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 1,000	$939 1,341 coins	1.9%	3	1.1	2.74×
★ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 500	$743 1,061 coins	3.0%	0	2.2	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 133	$561 801 coins	8.5%	11	8.2	1.34×
★ Survival Knife \| Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary	1 in 250	$511 730 coins	4.1%	2	4.4	0.46×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$334 477 coins	13.4%	19	21.9	0.87×
★ Bayonet \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 100	$225 321 coins	4.5%	19	11.0	1.74×
★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 33	$153 219 coins	9.2%	21	32.9	0.64×
★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 17	$144 205 coins	17.3%	78	65.7	1.19×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 25	$104 148 coins	8.3%	46	43.8	1.05×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 15	$62.39 89.13 coins	8.3%	66	72.7	0.91×
PP-Bizon \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	$0.01 0.02 coins	0.0%	413	410.6	1.01×
MP9 \| Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	37.5%	<$0.01 0.01 coins	0.0%	406	410.6	0.99×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$54.7178.15 coins$1,5232,175 coins27.83x23h

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$54.7178.15 coins$1,5232,175 coins27.83x1d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$55.6179.44 coins$1,1261,609 coins20.25x3d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedL3MON™ csgoroll.com$55.6179.44 coins$1,1261,609 coins20.25x5d

M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$54.7178.15 coins$1,0911,559 coins19.95x1d

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert$54.7178.15 coins$1,0031,433 coins18.34x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$54.7178.15 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x4h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$54.7178.15 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerAlienVPredatorVPlessyVFerguson$54.7178.15 coins$0.010.02 coins0.00x4h

★ Ursus Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert$54.7178.15 coins$104148 coins1.89x4h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$54.7178.15 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerSpud$54.7178.15 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7h

MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$54.7178.15 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$54.71	90.91%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$54.93	90.90%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$55.61	90.90%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedhigh 0.0%legendary 0.4%extraordinary 9.0%covert 13.0%classified 0.5%restricted 2.0%consumer 75.0%best hit $1,523 (27.83x)