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Vulture

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price
$14.15
20.21 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $12.86 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
99.43%
19.4K openings, odds method
Variance
25.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
87.37%±18.432,827 openings
7 days
99.06%±7.4517K openings
30 days
99.43%±6.9719.4K openings
since tracking started
99.43%±6.9719.4K openings
68.5%87.8%107.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.92% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (92.46% – 106.41%, 19,428 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2,82787.37%±18.4−0.4σodds
7d17K99.06%±7.45+2.1σodds
30d19.4K99.43%±6.97+2.4σodds
All19.4K99.43%±6.97+2.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 19.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby1 in 20,000$2,667 3,810 coins1.0%51.0—
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 2,000$1,018 1,454 coins4.0%109.71.03×
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 800$1,008 1,440 coins9.8%2924.31.19×
M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 400$540 772 coins10.5%6548.61.34×
★ Sport Gloves | Vice (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,333$346 494 coins2.0%914.60.62×
AWP | BOOM (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 133$344 492 coins20.1%141145.70.97×
★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 134$274 392 coins15.9%147144.71.02×
★ Bayonet | Damascus Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 67$180 257 coins21.0%315291.41.08×
★ Sport Gloves | Omega (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 67$134 192 coins15.7%275291.40.94×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer47.5%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%9,1699228.30.99×
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer47.5%<$0.01 0.01 coins0.0%9,2639228.31.00×
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyRidwan$14.6420.91 coins$2,6953,850 coins184.1x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.6420.91 coins$2,6953,850 coins184.1x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyDizyy$14.6420.91 coins$2,6953,850 coins184.1x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.6420.91 coins$2,6953,850 coins184.1x
★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$14.1520.21 coins$2,6673,810 coins188.5x
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$14.1520.21 coins$1,0181,454 coins71.94x
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$14.1520.21 coins$1,0181,454 coins71.94x
★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert$14.1520.21 coins$1,0181,454 coins71.94x
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$14.1520.21 coins$1,0081,440 coins71.25x
★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$14.1520.21 coins$1,0081,440 coins71.25x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumerRusty Cake$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumerwSe$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x
MP9 | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer$14.1520.21 coins<$0.010.01 coins0.00x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC$14.1590.91%11
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC$14.6490.90%11
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 2.6%extraordinary 1.7%classified 0.8%consumer 95.0%best hit $2,695 (184.1x)