Warrior

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$14.08

20.11 coins

Advertised RTP

90.90%

EV $12.80 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.76%

1,617 openings, odds method

Variance

4.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 14

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

83.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

80.16%±24.26261 openings

7 days

84.81%±10.231,456 openings

30 days

85.76%±9.701,617 openings

since tracking started

85.76%±9.701,617 openings

55.5%80.3%105.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	261	80.16%±24.3	−0.9σ	odds
7d	1,456	84.81%±10.2	−1.2σ	odds
30d	1,617	85.76%±9.70	−1.1σ	odds
All	1,617	85.76%±9.70	−1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,617 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Factory New)gloves · legendary	1 in 10,000	$468 669 coins	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 2,000	$426 609 coins	1.7%	0	0.8	—
Sticker \| Edward (Gold) \| Krakow 2017sticker · extraordinary	1 in 769	$321 459 coins	3.3%	1	2.1	0.48×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Mangrove (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 385	$114 163 coins	2.3%	5	4.2	1.19×
AWP \| Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$111 159 coins	8.7%	14	16.2	0.87×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 50	$98.70 141 coins	15.4%	31	32.3	0.96×
★ Moto Gloves \| Boom! (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 133	$87.50 125 coins	5.1%	17	12.1	1.40×
★ Paracord Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 36	$74.90 107 coins	16.4%	34	45.3	0.75×
AK-47 \| Red Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$43.88 62.69 coins	15.4%	85	72.8	1.17×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$25.12 35.89 coins	10.8%	85	88.9	0.96×
Brigadier General Pinpin · extraordinary	1 in 17	$11.65 16.65 coins	5.5%	94	97.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$11.20 16 coins	5.7%	102	105.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ M249 \| Warbird (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	11.0%	$5.46 7.8 coins	4.7%	154	177.9	0.87×
Sticker \| Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary	1 in 13	$2.27 3.24 coins	1.3%	138	121.3	1.14×
Sticker \| Chinggis Warriors (Holo) \| Austin 2025sticker · uncommon	1 in 13	$1.83 2.61 coins	1.1%	140	129.4	1.08×
Sticker \| Chinggis Warriors (Gold) \| Austin 2025sticker · uncommon	14.0%	$0.90 1.28 coins	1.0%	263	226.4	1.16×
Warhammer 40,000 Imperium Sticker Capsulecontainer · common	15.0%	$0.82 1.17 coins	1.0%	230	242.5	0.95×
Sticker \| Warsticker · high	15.0%	$0.22 0.31 coins	0.3%	224	242.5	0.92×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sticker | Ruby Stream (Lenticular)sticker · extraordinary$14.0820.11 coins$2.273.24 coins0.16x3h

Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Gold) | Austin 2025sticker · uncommonignashi$14.0820.11 coins$0.901.28 coins0.06x3h

Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Holo) | Austin 2025sticker · uncommon$14.0820.11 coins$1.832.61 coins0.13x3h

Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Gold) | Austin 2025sticker · uncommon$14.0820.11 coins$0.901.28 coins0.06x4h

Warhammer 40,000 Imperium Sticker Capsulecontainer · common$14.0820.11 coins$0.821.17 coins0.06x4h

StatTrak™ M249 | Warbird (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$14.0820.11 coins$5.467.8 coins0.39x4h

Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Holo) | Austin 2025sticker · uncommon$14.0820.11 coins$1.832.61 coins0.13x4h

Sticker | Chinggis Warriors (Gold) | Austin 2025sticker · uncommonRunar$14.0820.11 coins$0.901.28 coins0.06x4h

Brigadier General Pinpin · extraordinary$14.0820.11 coins$11.6516.65 coins0.83x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
10 Nov, 02:14 UTC	$14.08	90.90%	18
9 Nov, 00:04 UTC	$14.08	90.93%	18
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$14.09	90.92%	18
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$14.35	90.93%	18
6 Nov, 23:09 UTC	$14.40	90.91%	18
3 Nov, 22:41 UTC	$14.40	90.92%	18
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$14.39	90.93%	18

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%covert 5.8%extraordinary 14.6%classified 4.5%restricted 12.0%mil spec 11.0%uncommon 22.0%common 15.0%high 15.0%best hit —