Warzone
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$179.10
256 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $162.82 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
96.83%
246 openings, odds method
Variance
11.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
86.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 246 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$179256 coins$5,0407,200 coins28.14x
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkableRobond$182260 coins$5,0407,200 coins27.66x
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkabletashud$182260 coins$5,0407,200 coins27.66x
Sticker | Ninjas in Pyjamas (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$182260 coins$5,0407,200 coins27.66x
★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinarytashud$182260 coins$2,3843,405 coins13.08x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4$182260 coins$1,5952,278 coins8.75x
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 4)StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 4🟢LIVE kick/sn0wieTV GIVEAWAY$179256 coins$1,5842,263 coins8.85x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov, 02:14 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 20:11 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $179 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 22:57 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 22:41 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $182 | 90.91% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 1.0%extraordinary 1.0%covert 11.0%classified 1.0%epic 1.0%mil spec 85.0%best hit $5,040 (28.14x)