Whack

A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$119.98

171 coins

Advertised RTP

90.91%

EV $109.07 from 17 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.16%

113 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

89.03%±26.63105 openings

30 days

93.16%±25.68113 openings

since tracking started

93.16%±25.68113 openings

61.5%90.5%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	105	89.03%±26.6	−0.1σ	odds
30d	113	93.16%±25.7	+0.2σ	odds
All	113	93.16%±25.7	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 113 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 1,000	$2,716 3,880 coins	2.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Superconductor (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 400	$1,142 1,632 coins	2.6%	0	0.3	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 286	$1,068 1,526 coins	3.4%	1	0.4	—
★ Karambit \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 200	$811 1,159 coins	3.7%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$452 646 coins	24.9%	10	6.8	1.47×
★ Bayonet \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 59	$350 500 coins	5.5%	0	1.9	0.00×
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 125	$332 474 coins	2.4%	1	0.9	—
★ StatTrak™ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)StatTrak · knife · covert · Ruby	1 in 77	$325 464 coins	3.9%	0	1.5	0.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Phase 3)knife · covert · Phase 3	1 in 29	$147 210 coins	4.7%	3	4.0	0.76×
P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$118 169 coins	7.8%	9	8.1	1.11×
MAC-10 \| Graven (Factory New)weapon · restricted	15.0%	$109 156 coins	15.0%	22	16.9	1.30×
★ Survival Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 22	$98.70 141 coins	4.1%	6	5.1	1.18×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 36	$97.30 139 coins	2.5%	3	3.2	0.95×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Well-Worn)knife · covert	14.0%	$46.46 66.37 coins	6.0%	12	15.8	0.76×
★ Navaja Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	12.6%	$46.07 65.82 coins	5.3%	18	14.3	1.26×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Caiman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	15.0%	$38.40 54.86 coins	5.3%	13	16.9	0.77×
Souvenir AWP \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial	14.4%	$3.34 4.77 coins	0.4%	15	16.3	0.92×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$122174 coins$1,0861,551 coins8.91x3d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$120171 coins$3.344.77 coins0.03x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$120171 coins$46.0765.82 coins0.38x1d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$120171 coins$38.4054.86 coins0.32x1d

Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedLuxi$120171 coins$452646 coins3.77x1d

Souvenir AWP | Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · industrial$120171 coins$3.344.77 coins0.03x1d

★ Navaja Knife | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert$120171 coins$46.0765.82 coins0.38x1d

★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert$120171 coins$98.70141 coins0.82x1d

StatTrak™ USP-S | Caiman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified$120171 coins$38.4054.86 coins0.32x1d

MAC-10 | Graven (Factory New)weapon · restrictedAnh Trithong$120171 coins$109156 coins0.91x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$120	90.91%	17
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$121	90.91%	17
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$122	90.91%	17

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.4%covert 42.1%restricted 21.0%classified 22.2%industrial 14.4%best hit $1,086 (8.91x)