Whiffy

A case on CSGORoll (5%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.

Price

$9.21

13.15 coins

Advertised RTP

90.92%

EV $8.37 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

85.69%

11.2K openings, odds method

Variance

38.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 50

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

95.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

68.04%±32.601,370 openings

7 days

87.41%±12.449,470 openings

30 days

85.69%±11.4511.2K openings

since tracking started

85.69%±11.4511.2K openings

35.0%68.2%101.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,370	68.04%±32.6	−1.4σ	odds
7d	9,470	87.41%±12.4	−0.5σ	odds
30d	11.2K	85.69%±11.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	11.2K	85.69%±11.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Negev \| Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$2,184 3,120 coins	2.6%	1	1.1	0.89×
MP9 \| Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$2,069 2,955 coins	7.4%	2	3.4	0.59×
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 1,667	$1,042 1,489 coins	7.5%	9	6.7	1.34×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Emerald Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · epic	1 in 1,000	$592 846 coins	7.1%	7	11.2	0.62×
MAC-10 \| Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 500	$277 395 coins	6.6%	19	22.4	0.85×
MP9 \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 333	$192 274 coins	6.9%	36	33.6	1.07×
Souvenir UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · classified	1 in 200	$160 229 coins	9.6%	38	56.0	0.68×
Glock-18 \| Fully Tuned (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 125	$92.40 132 coins	8.8%	96	89.6	1.07×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 100	$64.17 91.67 coins	7.7%	114	112.1	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$27.53 39.33 coins	6.6%	233	224.1	1.04×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	19.0%	$3.18 4.55 coins	7.2%	2,147	2129.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	19.0%	$3.11 4.44 coins	7.1%	2,093	2129.1	0.98×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	19.0%	$3.00 4.29 coins	6.8%	2,106	2129.1	0.99×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	19.0%	$1.96 2.8 coins	4.4%	2,137	2129.1	1.00×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	19.0%	$1.65 2.35 coins	3.7%	2,168	2129.1	1.02×

Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

Negev | Mjölnir (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$9.1813.11 coins$2,2123,160 coins241.0x4d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedmickarmement100k$9.2113.16 coins$2,0692,955 coins224.5x2d

MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$9.1813.11 coins$2,0582,940 coins224.3x5d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$9.1613.08 coins$1,0681,526 coins116.7x2d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restrictedPingu$9.1813.11 coins$1,0681,526 coins116.4x3d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restrictedRekah csgoroll.com$9.1813.11 coins$1,0681,526 coins116.4x4d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restrictedI'm the best bird$9.1813.11 coins$1,0681,526 coins116.4x4d

MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted$9.1813.11 coins$1,0681,526 coins116.4x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified$9.2113.15 coins$3.184.55 coins0.35x14m

MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedSuperbukeN$9.2113.15 coins$3.184.55 coins0.35x14m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$9.2113.15 coins$3.114.44 coins0.34x14m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$9.2113.15 coins$3.114.44 coins0.34x18m

MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted$9.2113.15 coins$1.962.8 coins0.21x18m

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$9.2113.15 coins$3.114.44 coins0.34x18m

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$9.2113.15 coins$1.652.35 coins0.18x18m

USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified$9.2113.15 coins$3.004.29 coins0.33x18m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Mount Fuji (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedkevinlowroller (2K LB)$9.2113.15 coins$27.5339.33 coins2.99x18m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:26 UTC	$9.21	90.92%	15
8 Nov, 23:33 UTC	$9.21	90.89%	15
8 Nov, 17:30 UTC	$9.21	90.92%	15
8 Nov, 11:27 UTC	$9.16	90.89%	15
5 Nov, 10:39 UTC	$9.18	90.89%	15
2 Nov, 21:39 UTC	$9.20	90.94%	15

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 19.7%restricted 40.1%epic 0.1%mil spec 0.3%rare 0.8%covert 1.0%milspec 19.0%Classified 19.0%best hit $2,212 (241.0x)