Wild Ride
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$9.10
13 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $8.27 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.53%
3,151 openings, odds method
Variance
3.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,151 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $50.27 71.81 coins | 60.8% | 342 | 315.1 | 1.09× |
| FAMAS | Valence (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $27.71 39.58 coins | 6.7% | 60 | 63.0 | 0.95× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $27.59 39.41 coins | 16.7% | 126 | 157.6 | 0.80× |
| P250 | Crimson Kimono (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 500 | $17.67 25.25 coins | 0.4% | 9 | 6.3 | 1.43× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $17.51 25.01 coins | 2.1% | 32 | 31.5 | 1.02× |
| SCAR-20 | Splash Jam (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $13.40 19.14 coins | 6.5% | 129 | 126.0 | 1.02× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 18.8% | $2.94 4.2 coins | 6.7% | 580 | 592.4 | 0.98× |
| Galil AR | VariCamo (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial | 59.0% | $0.02 0.03 coins | 0.1% | 1,873 | 1859.1 | 1.01× |
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 14:28 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $9.10 | 90.90% | 8 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.96 | 90.89% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%restricted 20.8%industrial 60.2%classified 4.0%best hit —