Wild West
A case on CSGORoll (20%), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.83
68.33 coins
Advertised RTP
90.91%
EV $43.48 from 19 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.38%
79 openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 79 openings and 21.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 79 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$47.8368.33 coins$98.70141 coins2.06x
USP-S | Orion (Factory New)weapon · classified🟢Kick: Activ3C0ma$47.8368.33 coins$78.40112 coins1.64x
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedViggerMcNieger$48.7369.62 coins$3.685.26 coins0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 14:08 UTC | $47.83 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $47.83 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $47.53 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 6 Nov, 10:50 UTC | $48.73 | 90.90% | 19 |
| 5 Nov, 22:45 UTC | $48.73 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 3 Nov, 09:32 UTC | $48.74 | 90.91% | 19 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.76 | 90.90% | 19 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 34.9%restricted 10.1%classified 25.1%industrial 10.0%mil spec 20.0%best hit —