Wisdom
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.96
19.95 coins
Advertised RTP
90.92%
EV $12.70 from 13 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.93%
4,174 openings, odds method
Variance
5.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 12
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,174 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec$13.9619.95 coins$7.1610.23 coins0.51x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Isaac (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specEmz$13.9619.95 coins$7.1610.23 coins0.51x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.92%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Nov, 01:53 UTC | $13.96 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $13.99 | 90.90% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $13.95 | 90.89% | 13 |
| 8 Nov, 11:27 UTC | $14.11 | 90.92% | 13 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.11 | 90.91% | 13 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.5%epic 0.1%mil spec 15.8%restricted 18.0%extraordinary 4.0%classified 6.0%High Grade 15.0%high 18.6%remarkable 22.0%best hit —