Yin Yang
A case on CSGORoll, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORoll's own item price converted from Roll coins at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.01
21.44 coins
Advertised RTP
90.90%
EV $13.64 from 12 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.23%
1,334 openings, odds method
Variance
6.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
12.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,334 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORoll's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgoroll:graphql boxes.slots.rate, 11 Nov, 08:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Vulcan (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$14.8721.24 coins$7271,039 coins48.92x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov, 23:33 UTC | $15.01 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:30 UTC | $14.73 | 90.90% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.87 | 90.89% | 12 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.0%covert 12.5%classified 10.0%industrial 12.5%restricted 15.0%consumer 50.0%best hit $727 (48.92x)