Anubis

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price
$16.99
Advertised RTP
90.54%
EV $15.38 from 26 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.15%
144 openings, sample method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
19.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
7 days
144 openings · below min
30 days
144 openings · below min
since tracking started
144 openings · below min
74.5%93.3%112.0%

Small sample. 144 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h0———
7d14493.15%±18.1—sample
30d14493.15%±18.1—sample
All14493.15%±18.1—sample
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 144 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Factory New)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 142,857$6350.0%00.0—
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert1 in 14,493$3300.1%00.0—
M4A4 | Eye of Horus (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 2,625$2100.5%00.1—
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 416$1171.8%00.3—
P250 | Apep's Curse (Factory New)weapon · Classified1 in 138$92.434.4%11.00.96×
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 68$69.296.6%22.10.94×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink1 in 67$67.746.6%52.22.32×
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 35$47.358.9%44.10.97×
P250 | Apep's Curse (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 16$39.8716.2%89.00.89×
FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink1 in 17$39.4715.1%68.50.71×
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 20$15.435.1%87.31.10×
Nova | Sobek's Bite (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 20$12.424.1%77.30.96×
P90 | ScaraB Rush (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 20$11.973.9%87.31.10×
Glock-18 | Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20$10.493.5%77.30.96×
AWP | Black Nile (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 20$10.443.4%107.31.37×
P90 | ScaraB Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 20$9.413.1%57.30.69×
Nova | Sobek's Bite (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 20$9.063.0%97.31.23×
Tec-9 | Mummy's Rot (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 20$8.372.8%57.30.69×
AK-47 | Steel Delta (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 20$7.412.4%57.30.69×
P90 | ScaraB Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 20$5.911.9%57.30.69×
Nova | Sobek's Bite (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20$5.301.7%97.31.23×
AWP | Black Nile (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue1 in 20$4.191.4%77.30.96×
MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New)weapon · blue1 in 20$3.231.1%47.30.55×
AK-47 | Steel Delta (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare1 in 20$2.710.9%117.31.51×
USP-S | Desert Tactical (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 20$2.360.8%87.31.10×
MAC-10 | Echoing Sands (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 20$1.990.7%107.31.37×
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/anubis/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.54%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
6 Nov, 05:23 UTC$16.9990.54%26
5 Nov, 23:09 UTC$16.9994.00%26
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#eb4b4b 0.0%Covert 0.0%red 0.0%classified 1.7%Classified 0.7%pink 13.6%violet 33.3%#4b69ff 5.1%restricted 5.1%mil spec 5.1%blue 15.2%#8847ff 5.1%Rare 5.1%industrial 5.1%Industrial Grade 5.1%best hit —