Armcase
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.44
Advertised RTP
93.36%
EV $0.41 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.02%
1,093 openings, odds method
Variance
5.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,093 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/armcase/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.36%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.44 | 93.36% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $0.42 | 97.80% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $0.42 | 97.73% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 0.2%Mil Spec Grade 0.0%Rare 28.4%#4b69ff 28.2%blue 21.3%#4B69FF 0.0%milspec 21.9%best hit —