Ascent
A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$0.28
Advertised RTP
94.93%
EV $0.27 from 34 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.19%
1,742 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,000 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/ascent/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.93%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $0.28 | 94.93% | 34 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $0.28 | 94.00% | 34 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedpink 0.0%Mythical 0.2%classified 0.0%Classified 0.0%#4b69ff 0.6%Rare 14.1%blue 18.1%uncommon 4.8%Uncommon 31.5%milspec 3.8%common 3.8%industrial 11.5%#b0c3d9 7.7%#5e98d9 3.8%best hit —