Assault

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$15.99

Advertised RTP

93.21%

EV $14.90 from 13 items

Observed RTP, 30d

68.97%

52 openings, sample method

Variance

1.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

37.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

94.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

52 openings · below min

30 days

52 openings · below min

since tracking started

52 openings · below min

65.5%79.8%94.0%

Small sample. 52 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	52	68.97%±2.87	—	sample
30d	52	68.97%±2.87	—	sample
All	52	68.97%±2.87	—	sample

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 52 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 83,333	$1,955	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Hot Rod (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,194	$366	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 3,096	$319	0.7%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Bulldozer (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 218	$102	3.1%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Tornado (Factory New)weapon · gray	1 in 147	$88.42	4.0%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 100	$81.64	5.5%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Caramel (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 94	$68.09	4.9%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 87	$64.00	4.9%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Candy Apple (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 94	$61.61	4.4%	0	0.6	—
SG 553 \| Tornado (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common	12.5%	$15.35	12.9%	4	6.5	0.61×
UMP-45 \| Caramel (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	19.4%	$12.65	16.4%	11	10.1	1.09×
SG 553 \| Tornado (Field-Tested)weapon · Common	32.5%	$10.47	22.8%	23	16.9	1.36×
UMP-45 \| Caramel (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	30.1%	$9.78	19.8%	14	15.7	0.89×

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/assault/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.