Aug
A case on CSGORUN (armory2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$1.49
Advertised RTP
95.25%
EV $1.42 from 36 items
Observed RTP, 30d
98.27%
558 openings, sample method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.7%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
57.6%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 558 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 558 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/aug/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 95.25%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 Nov, 05:23 UTC | $1.49 | 95.25% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $1.49 | 94.00% | 36 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 1.0%mil spec 7.7%covert 0.0%classified 0.0%rare 0.0%pink 0.0%violet 0.0%Legendary 0.1%Rare 16.6%industrial 10.7%#d32ee6 1.6%Mythical 8.9%Mil Spec Grade 7.0%#777777 4.5%milspec 18.7%consumer 3.8%#4b69ff 11.5%Common 3.8%Consumer Grade 3.8%best hit —