Aztec

A case on CSGORUN (coll2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.

Price

$8.99

Advertised RTP

91.27%

EV $8.21 from 15 items

Observed RTP, 30d

60.18%

2 openings, odds method

Variance

0.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

41.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

2 openings · below min

30 days

2 openings · below min

since tracking started

2 openings · below min

-0.5%97.5%195.5%

Small sample. 2 openings and 0.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	2	60.18%±134.6	—	odds
30d	2	60.18%±134.6	—	odds
All	2	60.18%±134.6	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values15 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 1,866	$167	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 539	$109	2.5%	0	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer	1 in 430	$92.92	2.6%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade	1 in 115	$53.05	5.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$11.94	11.3%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Ossified (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$10.67	12.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	11.6%	$9.04	12.8%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Ossified (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	11.6%	$8.89	12.6%	1	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	12.4%	$8.80	13.3%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Forest Leaves (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer	11.5%	$7.75	10.9%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Jungle Spray (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$5.13	5.7%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Jungle Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial	1 in 12	$4.44	4.7%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Jungle (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 16	$3.02	2.3%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Lichen Dashed (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer	1 in 19	$2.04	1.3%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Forest Leaves (Field-Tested)weapon · #B0C3D9	1 in 19	$1.93	1.3%	1	0.1	—

Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from csgorun:v1/box/aztec/show, 11 Nov, 16:28 UTC.