Baldrun
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$7.58
Advertised RTP
93.97%
EV $7.12 from 49 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.42%
233 openings, odds method
Variance
3.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.3%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values49 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 233 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/baldrun/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $7.58 | 93.97% | 49 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $7.70 | 92.51% | 49 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $7.70 | 93.41% | 49 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedhigh 0.0%contraband 0.0%covert 0.6%gold 0.0%covert knife 0.0%restricted 21.2%Covert 0.0%red 0.3%mil spec 5.1%classified 24.7%Ancient 1.6%pink 7.8%#8847ff 17.2%Mythical 10.2%blue 5.8%#d32ee6 5.5%best hit —