Bear c
A case on CSGORUN (hype2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$29.99
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $28.19 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
211.61%
3,581 openings, sample method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
27.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
48.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 98.17% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (202.37% – 220.85%, 3,581 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,581 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/bear_c/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $29.99 | 94.00% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 8.8%knifes 0.0%legendary 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%sunny 0.0%rare 0.2%covert knife 7.7%gold 4.6%Immortal 2.3%classified 13.9%Covert 4.1%#ffd700 4.0%blue 4.8%mil spec 14.9%pink 7.2%uncommon 5.0%restricted 18.5%Legendary 4.0%best hit $286 (288.8x)