Birthdaycake
A case on CSGORUN (oldcasesale), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$10.16
Advertised RTP
93.95%
EV $9.55 from 42 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.82%
280 openings, odds method
Variance
15.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.4%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
77.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 280 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/birthdaycake/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 93.95%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $10.16 | 93.95% | 42 |
| 4 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $10.18 | 93.77% | 42 |
| 3 Nov, 04:27 UTC | $10.18 | 94.60% | 42 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 3.2%legendary 0.0%sunny 0.0%rare 0.2%#ffd700 0.4%Ancient 2.8%red 1.3%industrial 1.6%classified 20.1%pink 14.3%restricted 7.3%uncommon 7.3%Mythical 14.4%Legendary 7.1%violet 7.0%Restricted 6.7%blue 6.3%best hit —