Black
A case on CSGORUN (palette2026), first seen 5 Nov 2026. Every value is CSGORUN's own item price.
Price
$5.49
Advertised RTP
94.00%
EV $5.16 from 40 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.77%
1,229 openings, odds method
Variance
0.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
26.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
49.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,346 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are CSGORUN's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
csgorun:v1/box/black/show, 11 Nov, 10:14 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 94.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 Nov, 23:09 UTC | $5.49 | 94.00% | 40 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert knife 0.0%covert 0.0%red 0.0%Legendary 0.0%mil spec 3.8%restricted 27.6%classified 4.4%pink 0.5%Mythical 14.3%blue 10.9%uncommon 3.7%violet 10.2%#8847ff 3.1%milspec 3.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.1%Rare 3.1%Restricted 3.1%#4b69ff 6.1%gray 3.1%best hit —